Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 0.094819 0.105989 0.117568 0.130440 0.144319 0.158802 0.175030
2024-10-27 0.075849 0.092128 0.110002 0.130948 0.154687 0.180621 0.210958
2024-11-03 0.067449 0.087950 0.111566 0.140449 0.174481 0.212971 0.259447
2024-11-10 0.056446 0.078913 0.106019 0.140518 0.182628 0.231737 0.292688
2024-11-17 0.048887 0.072837 0.102957 0.142648 0.192572 0.252297 0.328104
2024-11-24 0.042120 0.066771 0.099028 0.142936 0.199696 0.269168 0.359103
2024-12-01 0.039477 0.065799 0.101351 0.150981 0.216493 0.298065 0.405220
2024-12-08 0.037236 0.065037 0.103697 0.158907 0.233155 0.327005 0.451868
2024-12-15 0.033092 0.060969 0.101031 0.159700 0.240212 0.343637 0.483113
2024-12-22 0.028372 0.055453 0.095784 0.156454 0.241492 0.352574 0.504460
2024-12-29 0.026694 0.054509 0.097031 0.162238 0.255016 0.377634 0.546906
2025-01-05 0.024658 0.052734 0.096840 0.165824 0.265478 0.398736 0.584460
2025-01-12 0.022342 0.050399 0.095858 0.168545 0.275320 0.419940 0.623593
2025-01-19 0.020093 0.047936 0.094519 0.170690 0.284474 0.440555 0.662594
2025-01-26 0.020032 0.049469 0.099688 0.182915 0.308481 0.482013 0.730346
2025-02-02 0.017765 0.046548 0.097297 0.183305 0.315212 0.499744 0.766377
2025-02-09 0.016151 0.044672 0.096476 0.186028 0.325349 0.522319 0.809290
2025-02-16 0.014353 0.042157 0.094324 0.186437 0.331930 0.539915 0.845560
2025-02-23 0.014092 0.042874 0.097895 0.196229 0.352881 0.578210 0.910938
2025-03-02 0.013815 0.043509 0.101316 0.205839 0.373713 0.616610 0.976915
2025-03-09 0.012450 0.041475 0.099653 0.206803 0.381114 0.635652 1.015899
2025-03-16 0.010655 0.038131 0.095257 0.202878 0.380702 0.643259 1.038816
2025-03-23 0.010240 0.038108 0.097201 0.209873 0.397570 0.676304 1.098077